Section 95 of the Constitution Act, 1867 defines immigration as an area of shared federal-provincial jurisdiction, with federal law paramount.
Yet for the majority of Canada’s history, the federal government has dominated the immigration system. This gradually began to change in the 1960s when Quebec viewed the recruitment of francophone immigrants as a means of strengthening its demographic and political weight in Canada.
In the mid-1990s, the provinces started to view immigration as an increasing imperative to alleviate the impending economic and fiscal strain caused by their aging populations and low birth rate. At the time, some 80 per cent of Canada’s immigrants landed in just three provinces: Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. This came at the expense of economic development in the prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) and Atlantic provinces (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador). The crux of the matter was only the federal government and Quebec operated programs to select economic class immigrants. To address this challenge, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) proposed the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).
The goals of the PNP are to promote a broader distribution of immigration across Canada and to respond to the labour market needs of the provinces. Smaller provinces benefit from having a dedicated recruitment tool to encourage immigrants to settle in their jurisdictions. Larger provinces benefit from having a tool that allows them to recruit immigrants with skills that complement the immigrants selected by the federal government.
The PNP was initially a pilot before becoming a permanent program in 1998. It started humbly, with Canada welcoming some 400 immigrants through it in the program’s first full calendar year of operations in 1999. Under the Immigration Levels Plan 2024-2026, the PNP will be the main way Canada welcomes economic class immigrants over this three-year period, followed by IRCC’s Express Entry system. Canada is looking to admit 110,000 immigrants under the PNP in 2024 (slightly less than the 110,770 immigrant target under Express Entry), but the target will then rise to 120,000 immigrants in each of 2025 and 2026 (more than Express Entry’s target of 117,500 immigrants in each year).
Canada’s PNP targets have doubled since 2018,[1] representing a marked shift in how the country manages its immigration system. IRCC has been subjected to immense pressure by the provinces to devolve control of economic class selection. For instance, in July 2022, the ministers responsible for immigration in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta wrote a letter to their federal counterpart asking for more selection authority.[2]
The pressure is a function of key factors such as:
- The majority of IRCC-selected economic class immigrants landing in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. Smaller provinces argue IRCC-operated programs tend to be less effective in steering immigrants to their jurisdictions.
- Demographic challenges across Canada placing a greater economic and fiscal imperative for all jurisdictions to welcome more immigrants who will work, pay taxes, and consume goods and services.
- The coronavirus pandemic placing even greater strain on labour markets across Canada, causing the provinces to increasingly rely on immigrants to address their workforce needs.
- Although they welcome most of the IRCC-selected economic class immigrants, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia argue they need more PNP authority to screen and nominate immigrants who can fill specific labour market needs, and also to promote a broader distribution of immigration within their provinces.
- Ontario welcomes the highest share of family and refugee class immigrants in Canada, hence, it argues it needs more PNP authority to support economic development through immigration.
- In addition, the provinces argue they are better-positioned than the federal government to select immigrants who can succeed economically. However, a December 2023 study by Statistics Canada indicates that in recent years, economic class immigrants selected by the federal government have had higher incomes on average than provincial nominees.[3]
Up until recently, the provinces would lobby IRCC individually and collectively for higher PNP targets each year. This occasionally led to friction among the two sides and also a great deal of uncertainty for the provinces since they were informed of their respective PNP targets at the start of each year, which they argued made it difficult for them to plan ahead. A breakthrough was made in July 2022 when IRCC and the provinces agreed to develop the first multi-year PNP allocation plan,[4] which took effect in March 2023.[5] The multi-year plan led to a 44 per cent increase in PNP targets beginning in 2023, a development which the provinces greeted with much fanfare.[6]
Moving forward, there appears to be a strong likelihood the PNP will continue to comprise a large share of Canada’s economic class admissions over the foreseeable future. In addition to the aforementioned developments, in recent years, Canada’s Premiers have increasingly stressed their desire for more control over immigration. For instance, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has repeatedly outlined his desire for the federal government to give his province similar immigration authority as Quebec.[7] Among its unique features compared to all other federal-provincial immigration agreements, the Canada-Quebec Accord gives Quebec sole authority to select economic class immigrants destined to the province. In all other jurisdictions, PNP admissions are complemented by immigrant admissions under federal economic class pathways (e.g., Express Entry).
It is also important to stress the PNP is viewed favourably by IRCC itself.[8] The PNP supports IRCC’s objective of promoting a broader distribution of immigration across Canada. IRCC has also been sensitive to the needs of the provinces, including by sustaining regular PNP-only Express Entry draws throughout the pandemic, even when it was pausing Express Entry draws for IRCC-operated programs. Between September 2021 and June 2022, IRCC conducted 21 consecutive PNP-only Express Entry draws.[9] During this time, it refrained from inviting other Express Entry candidates so that it could reduce its backlogs and get the Express Entry permanent residence application processing standard back to six months or less for 80% of applicants.[10] This strongly indicates IRCC views the PNP as a priority program, as it was unwilling to touch it despite an especially difficult period when the department was struggling to keep up with the pace of applications. Looking ahead, this suggests IRCC will be careful to avoid measures that may impair the ability of provinces to land immigrants key to their economic development objectives.
[1] Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), Notice – Supplementary Information 2018-2020 Immigration Levels Plan. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html (accessed January 25, 2024).
[2] Chin, Jess. Provinces demand more control over immigration to combat labour shortage. CBC: July 27, 2022. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/provincial-immigration-labour-1.6532956 (accessed January 25, 2024).
[3] Picot, Garnett, Eden Crossman, and Feng Hou. Provincial Nominee Program: Recent trends and provincial differences in earnings outcomes. Ottawa: Statistics Canada, December 21, 2023. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023012/article/00004-eng.htm (accessed January 25, 2024).
[4] IRCC, Federal, provincial and territorial immigration Ministers meet to plan for the future of Canada’s immigration system. July 18, 2022. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/07/federal-provincial-and-territorial-immigration-ministers-meet-to-plan-for-the-future-of-canadas-immigration-system.html (accessed January 25, 2024).
[5] IRCC, Federal, provincial and territorial immigration Ministers meet to plan for the future of Canada’s immigration system. March 10, 2023. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2023/03/federal-provincial-and-territorial-immigration-ministers-meet-to-plan-for-the-future-of-canadas-immigration-system.html (accessed January 25, 2024).
[6] See for example: Government of Saskatchewan, Federal Government Agrees to 42 Per Cent Increase In SINP Nominations And Reduce Duplication In Immigration Assessments. March 13, 2023. https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/news-and-media/2023/march/13/federal-government-agrees-to-42-per-cent-increase-in-sinp-nominations-and-to-reduce-duplication-in-i (accessed January 25, 2024); Government of Ontario, Province Building Ontario by Doubling Economic Immigration. March 18, 2023.
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1002844/province-building-ontario-by-doubling-economic-immigration (accessed January 25, 2024).
[7] Malone, Kelly Geraldine. Moe touts Saskatchewan role in global energy, food security during business speech. The Canadian Press: October 24, 2022. https://www.prpeak.com/agriculture/moe-touts-saskatchewan-role-in-global-energy-food-security-during-business-speech-5999649 (accessed January 25, 2024); White-Crummey, Arthur. Moe exploring Quebec-style control over immigration, taxes. Regina Leader-Post: December 4, 2019.
https://leaderpost.com/news/saskatchewan/moe-exploring-quebec-style-control-over-immigration-taxes (accessed January 25, 2024); Hunter, Adam. In calling for a ‘nation within a nation,’ Sask.’s Scott Moe aims to emulate Quebec’s policy control. CBC: November 13, 2021. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-moe-nation-quebec-1.6246899 (accessed January 25, 2024).
[8] IRCC, Evaluation of the Provincial Nominee Program. November 2017. https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/ircc/documents/pdf/english/evaluation/e1-2015-pnp-en.pdf (accessed January 25, 2024).
[9] IRCC, Ministerial instructions respecting invitations to apply for permanent residence under the Express Entry system. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/policies-operational-instructions-agreements/ministerial-instructions/express-entry-rounds.html#wb-auto-4 (accessed January 25, 2024).
[10] IRCC, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada service standards. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/service-declaration/service-standards.html (accessed January 25, 2024).