Immigration has been an increasingly hot button issue in Canada in recent months.
Negative sentiment is currently prevailing. In their annual survey on public attitudes towards immigration, the Environics Institute found support for immigration has decreased as anxiety has increased. The findings are similar to those of other recent polls conducted by the likes of Nanos/CTV, Leger, and Abacus.
The importance of public support for immigration cannot be understated. In a democracy, every single policy area is subject to debate and scrutiny. Ideally, the best ideas prevail, and in Canada, politicians are able to argue the merits of their ideas to voters in four-year cycles, during elections. Since the late 1980s, Canada has decided to pursue historically high levels of immigration to support the economy, and this remains the case today. However it will remain very difficult to maintain this policy if the attitude of Canadians further sours on immigration.
This is not an abstract discussion. We have seen how negative public opinion can impact immigration policies in other western democracies. Look no further than recent examples in the United States, United Kingdom, and across Europe, just to name a few. Canada is not immune to such realities, as we have seen in Quebec, where, since 2018, the incumbent government has pursued a policy of lower immigration, even though it is one of the oldest provinces in the countries and would arguably stand to benefit from higher levels of newcomers.
Public attitudes on immigration is so important that it keeps Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) up at night. The department recognizes this issue is key to its very existence and the existence of Canada’s immigration system as we know it. As such, IRCC periodically commissions public opinion research (POR) on the topic to inform their policies. As an example, they submitted the following summary of POR to Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller upon his appointment last year.
If you want further proof of the influence of POR on immigration policy in Canada, look no further than what has unfolded since the second half of 2023. Whereas they previously celebrated Canada’s record-high levels of immigration, the federal government took on a more muted tone in their Immigration Levels Plan 2024-2026 announcement, stating they were “stabilizing Canada’s immigration targets to support sustainable growth.” Months later, stability remained the word of the day when IRCC announced it was introducing a cap on international students. More recently, the department announced it would introduce a soft cap on all temporary residents to make the immigration system more sustainable.
Sustainability is the key concern outlined by Canadians in recent polls. Canadians continue to view immigration positively and see the value in welcoming newcomers. However, they question the country’s ability to sustain high levels of newcomer arrivals as Canada grapples with a host of pressures. The main concerns cited by Canadians are the potential impacts of newcomers on areas like housing affordability, congestion, and the ability to deliver effective social services such as education and health care. Canadians are not saying they do not want newcomers, but rather, they want to make sure our infrastructure and services are adequate enough to service the existing population plus new arrivals.
And to be fair to Canadians, they are completely right to feel this way. On housing, the Canadian government itself has labelled the situation a crisis. More worrisome, is research by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) which shows we still fall way short of the housing starts needed to restore affordability. Shortages extend to other critical areas as well. Recently, the Ontario College of Family Physicians forecasted that nearly 1 million people in Toronto could be without a family doctor by 2026. If we stick with Toronto, which is by far the leading recipient of Canada’s newcomers, congestion and chronic under-funding of public transportation have been longstanding issues.
If one looks at things from a glass half empty perspective, the latest polls on attitudes towards immigration are a major cause for concern. Societal license for high immigration Canada is on the decline. I, however, view the polls from the vantage point of the glass being half full. The polls are an opportunity to get the immigration system back on track, as Canadians are telling policymakers what conditions they need to express greater support for immigration. Put simply, they want more housing and roads to be built. They do not want excessive wait times to see a doctor, nor excessive wait times to move around their communities. They want their children to get the best education possible. All of these are reasonable asks and addressing these issues would also greatly benefit newcomers to Canada. Newcomers obviously come here for a better life and the recent pressures faced by Canada have unfortunately also had a negative impact on newcomer living standards.
It is unfortunate that things have gotten to this point. But, the polls provide policymakers with a game plan to course correct so that Canada can sustain higher levels of immigration in the future.